Georgia · Horizon published 25 Oct 2026 · Source published 21 Oct 2026 · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026
National Bank of Georgia keeps its monetary-policy rate at 8.25%
The National Bank of Georgia kept the monetary-policy rate at 8.25% on 21 October, while reporting September annual inflation of 5.6%, stronger 2026 growth and continuing upside and downside risks. The decision is a material financing and pricing signal for Georgia.
Verified facts
- The Monetary Policy Committee decided on 21 October 2026 to keep the policy rate unchanged at 8.25%.
- The Bank reports annual inflation of 5.6% in September, with roughly 2 percentage points attributed to energy; core inflation was 3.5% and services inflation 3.7%. Geostat separately reports the same 5.6% headline CPI rate for September.
- The Bank raised its 2026 average-inflation forecast to 5.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, and expects inflation to move toward the 3% target in the second half of 2027, with a 2027 average of 3.5%.
- Real GDP growth was reported at 6.3% in August and 7.6% on average for January–August; the Bank increased its 2026 growth forecast from 6.5% to 7.2% and projects 5.5% growth in 2027.
- The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for 16 December 2026, and the decision records alternative high- and low-inflation risk scenarios rather than one guaranteed path.
Horizon view
The hold combines above-target inflation with stronger activity and a stated medium-term convergence path. For companies, the relevant effect runs through bank funding, local-currency pricing, working capital, customer affordability and exchange-rate exposure, not through the policy rate alone. The Bank’s baseline and risk scenarios should be used as planning ranges, with contract and financing assumptions stress-tested against different inflation and currency outcomes.
Commercial implication and next step
Update Georgia commercial models with a dated macro-finance file: customer and supplier currency; local borrowing and deposit rates from actual banks; refinancing and covenant dates; input and payroll inflation; inventory and working-capital cycle; price-adjustment clauses; FX conversion and hedging availability; demand sensitivity; tax and cash-repatriation timing; and high, baseline and low scenarios. Obtain executable quotes and contract terms from regulated counterparties rather than using the 8.25% policy rate as a proxy for a company loan, and refresh the file after the 16 December meeting or any intervening official data.
What to verify before acting
The policy rate is not a lending offer, deposit rate, exchange-rate forecast or assurance of inflation convergence. Forecasts and risk scenarios may change with energy prices, domestic demand, fiscal conditions, external shocks and new data. National growth and inflation do not establish sector, customer or company performance, credit approval, funding cost, price, contract or transaction.
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Autumn 2026; online masterclasses, October–November incubation and late-November Demo Day described by GITA; exact participant schedule requires recheck · Kakheti Regional Tech Parks, Georgia
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