Türkiye’s fourth-quarter trade survey points to active import-side planning by leading firms

Verified facts

• The Ministry of Trade stated that the Foreign Trade Expectation Survey captures assessments by leading foreign-trade firms and described 100 as the neutral level for its indices.
• For the fourth quarter of 2026, the Ministry reported an Export Expectation Index of 96.9 and an Import Expectation Index of 115.4. The index is a survey-based leading indicator; it is not an invoice, tender, purchase order, customs declaration or forecast for a named sector, counterparty or shipment.
• The Ministry’s foreign-trade statistics portal separately publishes monthly official trade bulletins and tables. That distinction matters: recorded trade data and an expectations survey use different evidence bases, and neither one identifies a product-level order, buyer, exporter/importer authority, customs outcome or payment for a specific company.
• TurkStat’s August 2026 foreign-trade release, produced with the Ministry under the general-trade system, reported year-on-year changes in aggregate exports and imports. Preliminary national aggregates are useful comparison context, but they do not validate a particular HS code, origin, destination, transaction price, margin, freight route, credit or collection outcome.
• The IMF’s 2026 Article IV work sees continued disinflation progress but elevated external and foreign-exchange liquidity risks. This is independent macro-financial context, not evidence that a customer can pay, a price is viable, financing is available or cross-border collection will succeed.
• OECD’s June 2026 Türkiye outlook frames external demand, commodity prices, current-account exposure and disinflation as linked macro variables. Its forecasts and risks are scenario context, not a sector-specific order book, importer decision, logistics capacity or settlement assurance.